Battling for a Bye

Arch Madness in View

(St. Louis, MO) – We are five weeks away from Arch Madness and Missouri Valley Conference teams are jockeying for position in the postseason tournament. While Drake (10-2) and Bradley (9-3) seem safe bets to be one of the league’s top four teams, five other teams are battling for a bye.

Since the Valley’s top four teams receive a bye into the quarterfinals of the State Farm, Missouri Valley Men’s Basketball Tournament, these final five weeks will be a dogfight for the best possible position in St. Louis.

Northern Iowa (8-4), Belmont, Illinois Chicago (both 7-5) and 6-6 Illinois State and Evansville are separated by two games for the final two byes. This week could be pivotal for Illinois State. The Redbirds travel to UIC and Northern Iowa.

While Bradley isn’t really out of reach for UNI, Belmont and UIC, those three will be climbing over one another to get there.

Analyzing the Schedule

 Four of Northern Iowa’s final eight games are against the other top six Valley squads. The Panthers are the captains of their own destiny. Hosting Illinois State, Indiana State, Drake and UIC brings three of those bye pursuing games to the McLeod Center.

UNI faces Missouri State, Murray State, Belmont and Bradley on the road.

Belmont plays just two games with the top contenders. After this Wednesday’s game at Bradley, six of their final seven games are against teams in the lower half of the standings.

UIC’s Flames have four clashes with the other top teams. Part of their finishing schedule are games at Drake and at Northern Iowa. The ‘Northern Kingdom’ teams are a combined 10-2 in home conference games.

Five of Illinois State’s final eight are against the other top contenders and only three of their closing contests are at home. The Redbirds’ next three are at UIC, at UNI and then they host league leading Drake. The next eleven days could make or break the Redbirds’ ability to earn a bye.

Evansville’s schedule features four games with top contenders. The Purple Aces have won three straight and begin a two-game home stand Wednesday with Southern Illinois and then Bradley this weekend.

Battling for a Bye – History Lessons

Only one team that has played on Thursday’s first round in St. Louis has ever survived to play in the championship game on Sunday. No, Thursday competitor has cut down the Arch Madness nets.

Only six times in forty-eight previous tournaments has a team seeded worse than third won the postseason crown. Just three teams seeded seventh or worse, reached the semifinals. Ironically, the seed with the most tournament titles are the second-seeded teams, winning 18 times, compared to the first place teams winning 17.

That means 35 of 48 tournaments have been won by the top two seeded teams. No team seeded sixth or above has ever claimed the Arch Madness title.

Bradley’s 2019 team cut down the Enterprise Center nets coming from the fifth slot.

Battling for a bye is necessary for teams that want to be competitive in St. Louis.

Ties in the standings are decided by head-to-head matchups. If the tie remains, the league looks at the ‘national evaluation tool (NET). Northern Iowa (98) and Illinois Chicago (106) have a distinct advantage over the rest of the contenders. Evansville’s 240 ranking has them at a sizable disadvantage.

As these teams are battling for a bye, the final five weeks of the regular season will be compelling.

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