Can Loyola Advance?

(Nashville, TN) – Can Loyola’s magical season continue beyond Thursday afternoon? They are in that ever popular upset special six versus 11 matchup with the Miami Hurricanes. The Ramblers (28-5) battle the Atlantic Coast Conference Canes (22-9) Thursday at 2:10.

Porter Moser’s squad is on a roll. They’ve won ten straight games and as the Missouri Valley Conference automatic qualifier are entering the national tournament for the first time since 1985. Miami tied for third in the ACC and was added as an at large team. Jim Larranaga’s team is in the Big Dance for the fourth time in last seven seasons.

How do these teams compare? First the numbers.

Though Loyola is the underdog as the 11 seed, their RPI ranking (22 to 28) is better, their KenPom rating (40-37) is slightly worse and Ken Pomeroy’s computer says the Ramblers will lose 68-67 and they have a 49% chance to win this first round game.

Miami started the season in spectacular fashion, but ‘the U’ has struggled during the final 11 games of the season. Miami was 15-5 when super sophomore Bruce Brown (11.4 ppg, 7.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game) went down with a foot injury. Larranaga’s team is 7-4 since his departure. Because he is out of the lineup, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi is picking the Ramblers to win.

The Ramblers are a veteran squad, without much NCAA Tournament experience and Miami is young with plenty of Tournament history. As Valley watchers know, Loyola is 26-2 with Clayton Custer in the lineup and LUC is one of the best shooting teams in the nation.

Several freshmen figure prominently in the Hurricane mix. Point guard Chris Lykes, averages 9.6 points per game and 6’5 small forward Lonnie Walker (11.5 ppg) are both productive rookies. Where the Hurricanes have an advantage could be in the post. Valley all-freshman team member Cameron Krutwig has handled the post well, but Miami has two productive, 6’11 players in Dewan Huell and Ebuka Izundu that could prove to be matchup problems for LUC.

Loyola is an efficient offensive team and they play effective on the defensive end. With a .507 shooting percentage, and even after an sub-par shooting MVC Tournament, they are still completing close to 40% of their shots from deep.

With a veteran backcourt of MVC Player of the Year Custer, and Valley defensive player of the year Ben Richardson, the Ramblers should be able operate their offensive schemes. Marques Townes and Donte Ingram are veterans that know how to win big games. Ingram, Custer and Richardson have multiple prep state championships under their belts, and Townes as the only player to have March Madness experience (at Fairleigh-Dickinson) will have important leadership roles in Dallas.

Who will be a player or players that could tip the game in Loyola’s direction? Super sub Aundre Jackson will provide some headaches for those tall Miami centers and emerging freshman guard Lucas Williamson might be a player to spark Moser’s squad.

Moser, in his seventh season at Loyola says Miami is a difficult matchup.

“They (Miami) are unbelieveably long and athletic,” said Moser. “They space the floor very well. They can strike you off the dribble and have big time shooters that can hurt too. They’re well coached. They check a lot of the boxes.”

Look for Custer to rebound from a subpar Arch Madness performance and guide the Ramblers with a steady hand and re-find his shooting stroke.

I’m sorry Mr. Pomeroy, I agree with Mr. Lunardi. I believe the Ramblers will come up with their first NCAA Tournament win since the mid 1980s.

Do Good