Chances For a Deep Run

(St. Louis, MO) – What are the chances of teams that we cover making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament? It depends on your perspective and which team you’re watching. I believe Friday afternoon will include a steady work out for my remote hitting fingers.

At 12:40 the Missouri Valley’s Northern Iowa Panthers tip with Wyoming. Both teams like to slow the game down and utilize a multi-talented power forward as their key offensive cog.

About the time I’ve settled into that game, (1:45) the MVC’s other team in the tournament, the Wichita State Shockers tangle with New Mexico State.

Right as UNI is winding down their tight game with the Cowboys, and the Shockers are really into the flow of their game with the Aggies, the Ohio Valley Conference’s Belmont has the privilege of facing second seeded Virginia.

What is a Valley Hoop Insider to do? Let’s see, one on the television, one on the MacBook Pro and one on the iPad. That will do, but how will these teams fair in this years dance to madness?

East Region Panthers & Bruins

Northern Iowa (30-3) should handle Wyoming (25-9). Don’t sweat the #5 versus #12 bracket this time. UNI is coming hungry to Seattle. If Jeff Sagarin’s ratings can be trusted, the Panthers should win by about seven points.

It’s the third round where UNI will be most severely tested. It’s likely the Louisville Cardinals will be waiting. While Rick Pitino’s team has struggled offensively, they play extremely good defense. They are bigger and more athletic than the Panthers.

Ben Jacobson is 2-2 in NCAA tournaments. In other words, he’s 2-0 in second round games! Rick Pitino is 50-17 in 19 dances. I do believe Northern Iowa has a chance in this game. Sagarin’s numbers call this a close bet, but to pull off this upset, UNI must shoot the three well and either Deon Mitchel or Wes Washpun has to be an effective slasher. In what should be a low scoring game, Seth Tuttle cannot be the only offensive option.

With Iowa also playing at that site, there could be a significant number of fans from the Hawkeye State that could help push the Panthers into the Sweet Sixteen.

Belmont’s job is much more difficult, but they too have a ‘puncher’s chance’. They battle mighty Virginia. The Cavaliers could have been a top seed but fell into the two slot after the ACC tournament.

They play great defense and are known for their ‘pack the line’ defense, but since so much of Belmont’s offense comes from beyond the arc, this may work in the Bruins’ favor.

For all of Head Coach Rick Byrd’s regular season success, the Bruin mentor is 0-6 in the national tournament. That is largely a by-product of having these unkind opening game matchups. Eventually this great coach will break through.

Is this the year? This isn’t Coach Byrd’s best Belmont team, but they are gritty and are playing some of their best basketball right now. Obviously they will be huge underdogs and Sagarin’s mathematics predict a blow out.

If they could stun the Cavaliers, either Michigan State or Georgia awaits. This may not be Belmont’s year.

Midwest Rivalries – Wichita State

This could be historic.

Wichita State (28-4) opens against Indiana. While the Hoosiers are from the mighty Big 10, they are not your typical Indiana team. Remember it is March and in March, guard play rules. Indiana’s backcourt is very strong, but WSU’s back court is as good as anyone’s and they will take care of business, and earn Head Coach Gregg Marshall his 7^th tournament victory.

Their third round opponent would likely be Kansas. Yep. That Kansas. The Bill Self Kansas that won’t schedule Wichita State. The 11 time Big 12 Champ Kansas. This could be epic.

The game will be played in Omaha which is former MVC territory, and Husker territory (formerly of the Big 8 & 12). The crowd will lean toward black and gold!

Kansas is a great program with tremendous players, and Bill Self is 36-15 in this tournament, but this just might be the year that Wichita State rules the Jayhawk State.

KU doesn’t deserve a number 2 seed and outstanding forward Perry Ellis is still getting healthy. Kansas is 26-8 and won the Big 12 with a 13-5 record, but as Thursday’s games reminded us, the Big 12 wasn’t very good this year.

Two 4^th seeded Big 12 teams (Baylor & Iowa State) lost to 14 seeds on Thursday.

If this matchup occurs, I truly believe WSU defeats one of college basketball’s blue bloods. But of course, Valley teams have been upsetting the Jayhawks for a while. The three headed guard rotation of Fred VanVleet, Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton can measure up against any guard group the Jayhawks have seen all year.

A likely collision with Notre Dame would ensue, but who wouldn’t want to see WSU in the Regional Final against (by then) 37-0 Kentucky. One year ago the Wildcats ended the Shockers’ undefeated season. What is it they say about payback?

Northern Iowa at least in the round of 32 and maybe the Sweet Sixteen. Belmont probably out in the first game, but not in a route. Wichita State perhaps heading to the Elite 8. It could be a very entertaining couple of weeks.

Do Good