(St. Louis, MO) – As we come down to the wire on the Missouri Valley Conference expansion decision, this much is true. There is no getting around the negatives of losing Wichita State, but there are plenty of upsides with whomever the university presidents invite on Monday night.
Murray State, Valparaiso, UW-Milwaukee and Nebraska-Omaha all bring something positive to the table.
Valpo Coach Matt Lottich – valpoathletics
Quick Prediciton: If it is one team, it is Valpo.
As the university presidents meet Monday, they are taking many details into consideration, and apparently the decision Monday won’t be one of arguing over details or pounding tables. I’ve been led to believe this is a teleconference meeting, which would indicate that most of the discussions have already taken place and Monday will be more of Commissioner Elgin and the presidents confirming the decision rather a smoke filled room and emotional pleas.
Clearly they are considering two major questions.
How Many Teams?
First, how much expansion do they want right now? Is one team enough? Do they truly want 12 teams? Do they have three viable candidates? If they want to return to the status quo of ten teams, their next decision is between Valparaiso and Murray State.
Both teams have achieved sustained success on the basketball floor, draw over 3,000 fans per game and have some natural geographic rivals. In this scenario, I believe Valpo wins by the narrowest of margins. I believe two key factors push the vote to the Crusaders.
Murray State’s football program muddies the water. The Missouri Valley Football Conference is not the same organization as the Missouri Valley Conference. So these presidents can invite Murray to one league, but not the other. There are different institutions involved, and frankly the Racer football program does not measure up to the powerful MVCF. Valparaiso plays football, but the Horizon League does not and the Crusader football team would not have to leave the Pioneer League.
A Valpo edition gives the Valley five sets of tidy rivals with which to build their schedules. The Iowa schools (Drake and Northern Iowa), the Chicago-land teams (Loyola & Valpo), the I-74 squads (Bradley and Illinois State), the Indiana pair (Evansville & Indiana State) and Barry Hinson Alliance (Missouri State and SIU).
The scales tip back the other direction if you consider the infamous ‘public-private school balance’ as a critical issue. In the ten-team scenario I’ve suggested, there are five of each and some insiders believe that to be a negative balance.
If they add multiple teams then I see no reason to hold at eleven, though I respect the opinions of those who disagree.
Twelve Team Solution
‘New’ Missouri Valley Conference
Murray State appears to be head and shoulders above the other two teams in this scenario, which causes us to choose between Omaha and Milwaukee. If these are the choices, I believe Milwaukee makes the most sense.
Both these programs appear to be on the rise, but neither draws well yet. The Omaha geography is a tad problematic. While not far from Des Moines or Cedar Falls, the Nebraskan city is far away from every other team.
Milwaukee would have a built in rivalry with former and current conference mate Valpo and a nice geographic rivalry with Loyola. (BTW, Murray State is close to both SIU and Evansville).
Why do I mention geography? Clearly it was important to the league presidents. Oral Roberts, and the Dakota schools didn’t get a visit. One common denominator is that they weren’t as geographically appealing as some of the other schools.
Omaha’s outstanding hockey program is a blessing and a curse in this scenario. The basketball team would be playing second fiddle to their hockey brethren even though they are playing in an outstanding facility. Resources and vision in the Maverick athletic program centers on center ice, rather than center court.
If the Valley heads to 12 teams, that means divisional play or some kind of pod system. Doug Elgin’s brilliant team could create divisions by geographic delineations. Perhaps a North Division with Drake, Northern Iowa, Milwaukee, Loyola, Valparaiso and Indiana State. A South Division would include Illinois State, Bradley, Southern Illinois, Evansville, Murray State and Missouri State.
Pods or travelling partners are other options.
Monday night they’ll reportedly decide and by Tuesday we could have all the answers!
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The final pre-Christmas weekly all-stars of the @ValleyHoops & @OVCSports. With very rare exceptions, it's all about league play now for these leagues.
Now @DrakeBulldogsMB has moved into the top spot in @collegeinsider #midmajortop25 poll. @BradleyUMBB is 4th. @BelmontMBB is 17th.
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