Crucial Weekend in December

Missouri Valley’s Chance to Shine

(St. Louis, MO) – A crucial weekend in December could make or break the Missouri Valley Conference’s multiple bid hopes for next Spring’s NCAA Tournament. As a conference the Valley is ranked tenth in the NET and eleventh in both the kenpom.com and barttorvik.com rankings.

Three teams are ranked in the NET’s top-100 and a fourth is just outside that range. With precious little time left to build those numbers, the Valley has no less than eleven high impact games that could turn this season into the MVC’s first multi-bid season since 2021. That Spring, Loyola Chicago went to the Sweet Sixteen and Drake split its two March Madness games. Five of those games are during this upcoming crucial weekend in December.

Missouri Valley Conference teams must do a couple of things to get noticed on Selection Sunday. They must differentiate themselves from other so-called ‘mid-majors’, create exceptional computer numbers and upset some power conference teams.

So, what lies ahead during this crucial weekend in December?

Crucial Weekend – Head-to-Head Encounters

Many Valley student-athletes are working on semester finals and all the teams have been ‘off’ since at least Sunday, but Thursday the schedule kicks back in gear. Two large games await.

Prior to Saturday opportunities, Valley teams need to take care of business on Thursday and Friday. On the surface a game between Chattanooga and Evansville, Drake’s game with Saint Ambrose and Northern Iowa’s with Omaha don’t seem that important, but dropping games that should be won prior to Saturday are true setbacks. Similarly Southern Illinois’ weekend contest with Austin Peay is a ‘must win’.

There are no fewer than four huge opportunities on Saturday and one more on Sunday.

Bradley plays the first of its two huge ‘mid-major’ power encounters of these crucial days. The Braves are ranked fifth in the CollegeInsider.com ‘mid-major top-25 poll’ and they travel to California for a game with twenty-seventh ranked Santa Clara.

Brian Wardle’s team is currently 53 in the NET and the Broncos come in at 89. This encounter with a West Coast Conference team is a Quadrant Two contest for the Braves. The WCC is currently the seventh ranked conference in KenPom and ninth in the NET.

A head-to-head road win by Bradley would have great significance on numerous fronts.

Murray State is twenty-second in the mid-major poll and the Racers visit the thirtieth ranked Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky. WKU is 114 in the NET, so this is currently a Quadrant two game.

The Hilltoppers are from Conference USA which sits one spot ahead of the MVC at kenpom.com and two spots in front of the Valley in the NET. A road victory for the surging Racers (6-2) would be enormous.

Important Undercard

Missouri State visits Washington State and if the Bears could upset the (66 in the NET) Cougars, it would rank as one of the best 2024-25 MVC victories. The PAC Twelve refugees landed in the WCC and have already defeated Bradley and play Northern Iowa late next week. This is a Q1 contest for Cuonzo Martin’s squad.

Don’t underestimate two MVC/Atlantic Ten games this weekend!

Saturday, Belmont, now ranked 16^th at College Insider, visits a Richmond team that is a bit down, but the Spiders are dangerous at home and the A Ten ranks above the Valley at kenpom.com and in the NET.

Sunday’s home game for Illinois State has the same vibe. Saint Louis visits CEFCU Arena. If the Bruins and Redbirds could sweep the A Ten adversaries, the narratives begin to change nationally and metrics move subtly and significantly for the MVC.

These two games are ‘just’ Q3 and Q4 contests, but truly matter in the bigger picture.

Next Week is Huge

After this crucial weekend in December, Valley teams face two ‘power conference’ teams and two massive head-to-head games between top-25 teams in the ‘mid-major’ poll. We’ll wait to break those down later.

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