Dogfight to the Finish

(St. Louis, MO) – Other than Murray State blowing away the West Division, there is practically nothing else settled in the Ohio Valley Conference. Because of the way the OVC conducts their playoffs, the final three weeks of the season will have untold drama with each contest.

How will the East Division shake out? Which two teams will receive first round byes? Can anyone rival Cameron Payne for OVC Player of the Year?

Who Wins the East?

Three teams in the East have are separated by one game. The winner of the division, receives a double bye into the semi-finals of Music City Madness. After Wednesday’s games, Eastern Kentucky (15-9)(7-4) leads Belmont (15-10)(7-5) and Morehead State (12-15)(7-5) by one game.

You have to believe Belmont has some advantages. The other two combatants must visit Nashville to take on the Bruins. The rest of the schedule calls for this trio to play sub-.500 teams. So Rick Byrd’s team has a distinct advantage. However, Belmont has already dropped road games to both the Colonels and the Eagles.

Belmont’s only road game in the final four is at Tennessee Tech.

The other teams split their games between home and away.

Eastern Kentucky swept Morehead and has already defeated Belmont, so ‘tie-breakers would head toward the Colonels. Morehead’s only hope is to defeat Belmont and hope the Bruins defeat the Colonels. The stakes are high. One team could receive a double bye, one could receive a bye and the other would be forced to play in the tournament’s opening round.

Five Teams Shooting For Two Spots

One of the above teams will win the East. Joining the other two, in a battle for two opening round byes are a pair of West Division teams with comparable records. UT-Martin and Eastern Illinois will scrap with the East left-overs for third and fourth place, and  those first round byes.

Martin leads that race with just three losses and EIU is tied with Belmont and EKU with four losses.

The Panthers and Skyhawks face off on February 19^th and both teams have to play Murray State (21-4)(11-0), SIUE and Southeast Missouri, so their opponents are much more difficult than that of their brethren from the East.

None of those five teams will finish with less than five losses and the head-to-head matchups will determine much about this race.

We believe Eastern Kentucky will win the East and Belmont and one of the West teams will earn the byes. Eastern Illinois has been a great story, but they’ve struggled since Chris Olivier was injured. They’ve lost four of their last six games and three of their final five are on the road.

That leaves UT-Martin and Morehead to battle for the other bye. So, look for Martin to skip the first round of the playoffs.

Cameron Payne Or the Field?

Clearly Murray State’s Cameron Payne is the OVC’s ‘Player of the Year’ … unless someone goes crazy in the final several games. Frankly, the only player with a chance to unseat Payne is EKU’s Corey Walden.

Payne and Walden are the OVC’s top two scorers and 19+ points per game. They are second and seventh respectively in assists, the top two in steals and two of the top five players in assist-turnover ratio. In every case Payne leads Walden except in the steals category.

Should Walden explode in the final four games and the Colonels win the East, he would have a shot. I expect Walden to finish strong, but Payne will be hoisting the player of the year trophy.

Do Good