Four Hopes For the New Year

(St. Louis, MO) – As we roll toward 2019 and the conference season we have four hopes for the New Year. The nonconference portion of the basketball season hasn’t been very kind to Missouri Valley Conference teams, so what are we hoping to see?

Continued Resurgence at Drake and Indiana State

The best stories of the nonconference season have been at Drake and Indiana State. Those two programs have scored the league’s best victories and seem to be improving as the season wears on. Winning games in recent tournaments has pushed the Bulldog and Sycamores to the forefront of the Valley fans’ awareness.

Both teams have outstanding guard play and versatile lineups. Indiana State’s Jordan Barnes is making a run at ‘Player of the Year’ honors and barring a huge collapse, Drake’s Nick Norton will be the conference ‘Newcomer of the Year’. His assist/turnover rate is spectacular and he’s hitting big shots.

Barnes leads the league in scoring and is following up last season’s historic three-point shooting mark with an equally explosive barrage of long distance bombs. The Sycamores have several other offensive threats in Tyreke Key (16.9 ppg) and Christian Williams (double digits in five games since becoming eligible) and newly eligible Cooper Neese. ISU may have the most perimeter offensive options in all the Valley.

The ‘X-Factor’ is Drake’s Nick McGlynn. Arguably the Valley’s best center is a legitimate inside threat unlike any other pivot in the Valley. With all due respect to Cameron Krutwig, McGlynn who is fourth in the league in scoring (16.1 ppg) and fifth in rebounding (7.4 per game) is a constant threat on the block and around the rim. Norton’s lobs often turn into McGlynn dunks.

Finding Clayton Custer and Keyshawn Evans

Where are Clayton Custer and Keyshawn Evans? Custer, last year’s ‘Player of the Year’ has not played up to last season’s standards. With a different supporting cast the 6’1 senior is assisting less, turning over more, and shooting it worse. In virtually every category Custer’s numbers are significantly worse than last season. While he is scoring slightly higher (13.8 to 13.2 points per game), even his free throw shooting is not as good.

What has happened to the MVC’s most decorated player? Clearly he misses his high school teammate Ben Richardson, Donte Ingram and the efficiency of former league Sixth Man Award winner Aundre Jackson. With less experience and dependable scorers around him, Custer’s play and production has slipped.

Evans’ tumble has been even further. The preseason second teamer’s scoring average has dropped by over eight points, his assists by 1.5 and his shooting percentages have dropped like a rock. Unlike Custer the 6’ senior has everybody back from last season and even more talent on this year’s roster.

Milik Yarbrough is having another all-conference type of season and Phil Fayne is scoring and rebounding in a similar fashion to last season. The Redbirds need Evans to find his game.

His playing time has diminished because his production has diminished. Like Custer, even Evans’ free-throw percentage has fallen. Evans is shooting dramatically worse from both inside (.411 to .312) and outside (from .419 to .293) the three-point line.

If Loyola and Illinois State can find the 2017-18 versions of their point guards soon, they can still rule the Missouri Valley Conference.

Return of Key Players

The mysterious suspension of Southern Illinois’ Armon Fletcher and an injury to Loyola’s Lucas Williamson have been season changing events for those two programs. Fletcher was averaging 13.5 points per game and the Salukis (7-6) had won four straight prior to his suspension and Barry Hinson’s squad is 1-3 since then. If Hinson and Fletcher can work things out, the Salukis become an upper echelon Valley threat.

The Ramblers were 4-3 including narrow losses to Boston College and fifth ranked Nevada with Williamson in the lineup. The defending champions are 3-3 since. Without Williamson’s athleticism and rebounding Loyola is vulnerable to more physical opponents and his replacements Aher Uguak and Franklin Aunanne have not filled in well enough.

Williamson is due back in January.

Freshman Phenoms

Preseason prognostications about incoming freshmen were plentiful (including ours!). Indiana State’s Cooper Neese, Missouri State’s Jared Ridder, Loyola’s Cooper Kaifes and Agunanne and most of all Northern Iowa’s A.J. Green were bringing superior rookie scoring options to a league known to run by seniors.

Green is the only freshman ranked in the top 15 in the MVC’s scoring race (15.1 ppg). Ridder (8.0) and Neese (4.3) have only become eligible at the semester so their impact has been minimal while Illinois State’s Josh Jefferson (11.6 ppg) and Drake’s D.J. Wilkins (10.4) have made some early headlines.

Jefferson reached double figures in nine of the Redbirds’ first eleven games but has scored a total of five points over the past two.  Wilkins has converted at least one triple in each of his collegiate games and routinely plays over 30 minutes per game for rookie coach Darian DeVries.

How Neese and Ridder evolve could reshape their teams. If Green can continue to lead UNI in scoring, the Panthers (5-7) and last year’s freshman star Tywhon Pickford can recapture last year’s magic, UNI could still become a threat.

Kaifes and Agunanne have yet to become significant threats.

These four hopes for the New Year will determine the Valley race.

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