Handicapping The Stretch Run!

(St. Louis, MO) – If it was a horse race, the announcer would be yelling, “they’re heading for the final turn!” There are three great contests going on in the Missouri Valley Conference with one third of the season remaining to be played.

Don’t be confused there isn’t one race that matters. There are three!

Battle For First

Northern Iowa and Wichita State have gone to the whip and they are straining for the finish line. Both teams are 11 and 1 in conference play and are streaking. The Panthers (22-2) have won 11 straight and look invincible.

UNI has depth, defense and have proven they can slay the dragon known as Wichita State. Seth Tuttle is having an MVP kind of season, but the emergence of guard Wes Washpun as a slashing threat and Marv Singleton as an ‘enforcer’ type of rebounder has added a dimension to this year’s Ben Jacobson production.

Wichita State is, well, Wichita State! The Shockers have won 11 of their last 12 and last weekend they finally spanked somebody. We’ve been waiting for them to quit playing down to their opposition and Saturday they treated and undermanned Bradley squad like Hulk treated Loki.

With potentially one of the best back courts in college basketball and a wave of big body forwards, if the Shockers start actually playing angry, they could be intimidating, win the regular season title and the Arch Madness trophy and play deep into March.

If they continue to play like it’s a game at the local YMCA, then all bets are off. Wichita State’s final six games are more difficult than those played by UNI. The Shockers have to battle Greg Lansing’s surprising Sycamores of Indiana State twice and both teams have games with Illinois State and Evansville.

UNI visits the round house in Wichita for the final game of the season. I believe the slow burn is coming off and the Shockers take that game, and the regular season title, setting up a championship game in St. Louis that creates a ‘best of three’ scenario for the automatic bid to ‘the Dance’.

Third Place Matters

Arch Madness in St. Louis sets up a scenario where the third place team plays the sixth place team. In this case there are three teams within two games of third place, with six to play. Fourth and fifth place, play each other in the quarterfinals in St. Louis.

Indiana State (12-12)(8-4) leads Illinois State (15-9)(7-5) and Evansville (17-8)(7-6) in this important race. Not only do the Redbirds and the Purple Aces have a shot at 20 wins and post-season play, but all three teams are playing for an easier quarterfinal game.

Evansville hosts Illinois State on the final weekend and both of those teams have to play at Northern Iowa. Indiana State plays four of their final six games against the lower division teams, but they also play home-and-home with Wichita State.

Unless big man Egidijus Mockevicius returns soon and very healthy, Evansville will struggle to overcome the two loss deficit to catch the Trees and leap over the Birds.

The two ISU’s have both been inconsistent. After reeling off five wins to start the conference season, the Sycamores are 3 and four. Just when we thought the Redbirds had found their game, winning three straight, they laid an egg at Southern Illinois.

Who wins out? Greg Lansing knows how to get his team over the hump in February and March and Illinois State has a far superior talent base. Brains or brawn? I think the Trees hold on forcing Illinois State and Evansville to play each other on back-to-back weekends.

Player of the Year?

Back in December there was a coronation for Wichita State’s Fred VanVleet. The junior guard was on several pre-season all-America teams and was the pre-season player of the year in the MVC.

And VanVleet has been good, but ‘Larry Bird – Player of the Year’ good? That is the question we’re asking here.

With Seth Tuttle’s Northern Iowa Panthers battling for that top spot and Tuttle leading his team in virtually every statistical category, I believe he is now the front runner for the award.

As I type that last sentence, I am reminded that VanVleet just threw a triple-double at the Braves and is at his best when tournament time is close.

What if D.J. Balentine (20 points Tuesday night) catches fire again and leads Evansville to a third place finish with a flurry of bombs and drives. What if Ron Baker (Wichita State’s leading scorer) asserts himself during the final six games and drops 35 on UNI in the season finale?

Yes, there is much to accomplish during this final third of the Valley season!

Do Good