Moving the 3-Point Line – The Results?

Better from Longer Distances

(St. Louis, MO) – The offseason moving of the three-point line left many wondering how it would affect long distance shooting AND would it open up the lane? In the small sample size of all of the Missouri Valley Conference’s preseason games, the results have been positive.

Valley teams are shooting it better from longer distances.

During offseason rule changes the NCAA moved the arc from 20’9 to 22’1.75. The goal was to open up the lane, by drawing defenders further from the basket. Many thought the move would weed out questionable three-point shooters.

While it is practically impossible to study the ‘points in the paint’ portion of this rule change, we can make some deductions in that regard too.

Taking More and Making More

Missouri Valley teams are taking AND making more three-pointers this season. They are making a higher percentage of those long distance endeavors. Who knew they would be better from longer distances? It defies logic.

We haven’t studying the entire NCAA landscape, but we’ve looked at the Valley from every angle. Since the data changes everyday, this study covers every MVC game through December 15. The numbers don’t lie, they do not prove, ‘cause and effect’.

Last season’s numbers are clear. MVC teams converted .351 of their shots beyond the arc while making 6.99 of those attempts per game. Valley teams averaged 68.4 points per game. Drake led the league in scoring at 75.4 points per game and Northern Iowa was the worst scoring team at 65.1.

Through December 15 .366 of long distance Valley shots are converting and Valley squads are making 7.6 per game. Overall scoring is up too. While we expect scoring to drop during league play, as of mid December the MVC’s scoring average is 71.98.

Roughly translated, MVC scoring has increased by over six points per game and three-pointers are up by over two-thirds of a triple per contest. In other words, teams are more efficient from deep and scoring more often from inside the arc too.

The experiment is working.

MVC Players – Better From Longer Distances

Drake’s Brady Ellingson led the Valley in three-point shooting (.469) and made threes (2.97 per game). Just four MVC players converted more than two per game. Ten players topped the 40% mark on their long distance shots.

The 2019-20 numbers are significantly better. Eight Valley scorers are converting over two per game. Northern Iowa’s Trae Berhow (.531) and Bradley’s Nate Kennell (.476) top Ellingson’s percentages and triples per game (3.1 & 2.7 respectively). Twelve current conference performers are making more than 40% from deep.

Two-Pointers are Improved Too

As a side-bar, Valley players are making .458 of their two-point attempts compared to .447 last season.

Because Missouri Valley teams play great defense and we suspect these numbers will decline, but for now it looks like the moving the three-point line has produced the desired result. Valley players are better from longer distances.

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