National Rankings – How Does the Valley Stack Up?

What Do The Numbers Say?

(St. Louis, MO) – RPI, KenPom Ratings, the NET, BPI, what do they all mean? For a league like the Missouri Valley Conference all the ranking systems can be confusing, insulting an frankly irrelevant. But we have to ask, ‘what do the numbers say?’

Teams in the Valley are at a disadvantage when it comes to scheduling top flight competition and thus fighting their way on the national broadcast networks. Perception is huge when coaches are recruiting and boosters are donating. Thankfully the MVC has its own television package along with an important partnership with ESPN.

While crunching numbers, Valley members might be asking, ‘can’t you give us a break?’ And once conference season comes along, the critical NET measurements are already baked in. League members have no hope of large improvement in their rankings, while teams from ‘special seven’ conferences (power 5, Big East and American Athletic) will improve with virtually every game.

(Side note – non-conference NET should be the ONLY NET that matters)

What Do The Numbers Say?

The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is now the king of all statistical measurements. As much as we quote Ken Pomeroy, and his stuff is amazing, the NET is everything. While the Ratings Percentage  Index (RPI) was the barometer for getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, it is fun to look at, but is no longer the tool of choice.

However, as we look at all three metrics we realize they just aren’t that different. The ‘special seven’ are the top seven leagues regardless of the measurement technique. While there are variances in the rankings, the next seven conferences land in approximately the same places. I love to crunch the numbers. So, what do the numbers say?

The Big East is king.

While the Atlantic Coast Conference boasts of the reigning national champion (Virginia) and five national titles over the past ten seasons, the Big East leads the NET, the RPI and is third on the KenPom scale. Oh, and the Big East did claim three national titles over the past decade.

Collectively, the Big Ten has the best KenPom ranking. The Big 12 is second in the RPI and Big 10 is second in the NET.

Once you average out the rankings, they look like this:

1. Big East                                                                       8. Atlantic 10
2. Big Ten                                                                        9. West Coast
3. Big 12                                                                         10. Mountain West
4. Atlantic Coast                                                           11. Missouri Valley
5. Pacific Coast                                                             12. Mid-American
6. Southeastern                                                            13. C-USA
7. American Athletic                                                   14. Ivy

 

Those first seven or ‘special seven’ will take the lion-share of the NCAA Tournament bids and that leaves the scraps to the other 25 conferences. Last season, teams from outside the ‘special seven’ received four ‘at large’ bids. After 32 conference automatic bids, then 32 invitations are sent to the ‘special seven’ league teams. There had been one ‘at-large’ bid per season the three previous years.

For a league like the Missouri Valley Conference these rankings can truly matter. Their true competition is not the upper echelon leagues, but those conferences all around them. Their dreadful record against Atlantic Ten teams (2-9) will be damaging come seeding or invitation time. Conversely, the Valley went 13-12 against the other second seven squads Bradley has one nonconference game remaining against Toldeo of the Mid-American Conference.

The MVC’s outstanding nonconference record of 77-48 produced two, Top 25 victories and five wins over ‘super seven’ league members. Those 77 victories are five more than last season. Twelve wins have come against teams picked to finish first or second in their respective leagues.

Valley teams have accomplished some impressive feats.

Northern Iowa Has To Excel

UNI leads the Valley in all three categories. The Panthers are the NET’s twenty-third ranked team. KenPom.com that rates efficiencies, says they are the seventy-third most efficient team in the Land and realtimerpi.com ranks them twenty-first.

If any Missouri Valley team could grab an at-large bid to March Madness, it is UNI. Since none of the Valley teams’ NET will change dramatically during conference season, the Panthers are the only team that could earn a favorable seed if they win the league’s postseason tournament. For the Valley to have one favorably seeded team, or to have an outside chance at placing two teams in the NCAA Tournament, Ben Jacobson’s team has to excel during Valley play.

That’s what the numbers say.

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