Good Challenges
(St. Louis, MO) – The basketball season is finally here, and the opening night and week are here for Missouri Valley Conference teams. Summer and fall practices and exhibition games are over. Dress rehearsals are behind us and now the games really count.
While Valley coaches tell us scheduling is a difficult science to master, the opening night and week reveal some good challenges and opportunities for league members to build a national narrative.
A preseason KenPom ranking as the eleventh best basketball conference compares closely to last season’s tenth place finish. The Valley ranks just behind the Western Athletic Conference and just in front of Conference USA, the Sun Belt Conference and the Ivy League.
Several sub-Division 1 games are on hand and don’t play into the almighty NET Ranking, but during opening night and week Valley teams play important ‘tone setting’ games. While NET rankings aren’t revealed until later in the season, if we use KenPom’s rankings as a guide there valuable opportunities during this season’s first week.
If KenPom’s rankins were the NET numbers then this week MVC teams play one Quadrant 1, three Quad 2, seven Quad 3 and four Quad 4 games. They can’t lose any of the Q4 or sub-D1 games. Then, how they fair in the other ten games will start to define the league.
Opening Night
Five teams open with sub-Division 1 games. Bradley and Illinois State each open with Ohio Valley Conference teams with KenPom numbers in the 300s (Q4). But four outstanding opportunities remain on Monday night.
Southern Illinois, Indiana State and Valparaiso open with neutral site games in games where they will be slight underdogs. All three would be Q3 games.
The Salukis are in Sioux Falls, South Dakota for the Field of 68 Opening Showcase. Three games will be played at the Sanford Pentagon. While Saint Louis plays Santa Clara and McNeese State tangles with South Dakota State, the Salukis face College of Charleston.
The Cougars won 27 games last season and were ranked twenty-sixth in the CollegeInsider.com mid-major preseason poll. A Saluki win on Monday would be good and would improve as the season progresses.
Valparaiso and Indiana State are both playing in Xenia, Ohio at the ‘Total Athlete Tip-Off’ sponsored by Athletes in Action.
Valpo faces Liberty (27th in the mid-major poll) and the Sycamores meet Florida Atlantic. Liberty is from CUSA and won 18 games last season. FAU won 25 games last season and resides in the American Athletic Conference. KenPom expects SIU, Valpo and INS to all lose these Q3 games.
Missouri State plays in the league’s first potential Q2 game when the Bears play at Butler. The Bulldogs have a preseason KenPom ranking of 83.
If Murray State, Northern Iowa, Drake, Belmont and UIC win their non-D1 games and Bradley and Illinois State sweep their OVC foes, any other opening night victories would be very important in the beginning of ‘the Missouri Valley Conference will be good this season’ story-line.
The Rest of the Week
As the opening week unfolds, Evansville has a potential Q2 game on Tuesday. An AAC foe awaits the Purple Aces as they open at North Texas. The Mean Green open the season 80th in KenPom’s rankings.
Two games Thursday feature Northern Iowa hosting Milwaukee who is ranked 18th in the Mid-Major poll. UNI begins the season seventh. Illinois State travels to North Dakota State.
Murray State gives the Valley its first ‘power conference’ challenge when the Racers play at Pittsburgh. Pitt won 22 games last season. Belmont hosts Furman and UIC tangles with the thirteenth ranked mid-major team Yale.
Washington State is now in the West Coast Conference, but regardless of the conference affiliation they will provide a huge challenge for Bradley on Friday. The Cougars were second in the Pac 12 last year and won 25 games.
Sunday Drake hosts Stephen F. Austin and Northern Iowa hosts its second straight top-25 mid-major ranked team in UC Irvine. If the Panthers can run the opening week table, they will have done some ‘mid-major damage’.
KenPom predicts a 6-9 opening week record in Division 1 games for the Valley.
Opening night and opening week are very important for this year’s Missouri Valley Conference.
Do Good
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