The Case Against Murray State

(St. Louis, MO) – As much as it pains me to say it, Murray State is not going dancing in the NCAA tournament. I have tried to analyze, crunch the numbers, talk to the experts and I just can’t find a glimmer of hope for the Racers.

I know there is great energy behind a #RacersDeserveABid, but I’m sorry Ohio Valley fans and Cameron Payne fans. 2015 is not the year. I wish I was optimistic and I hope that I am wrong. I believe they DO DESERVE to be in the national tournament, but that remains wishful thinking.

Let me break it down for you and tell you why going to the National Invitation Tournament is better for the Racers.

Those Blasted Numbers

First the bad news. Murray State doesn’t have the numbers. I know 25 wins and an undefeated season in league play should be worth more than a 67 or 69 RPI (depending on whose you read), but they just don’t play out that way. The Racers have ceased receiving votes in either the writers’ (Associated Press) or coaches’ (USA Today) polls. They are not ranked in the ESPN Power Ranking, and in the four-letter network’s Basketball Power Index they are ranked 70^th.

The culprit in MSU’s demise as a tournament team, is their strength of schedule. As you know, RPI rules the day and the only way to achieve a dance worthy RPI is to play a good schedule and win some games. Murray’s strength of schedule was a dismal 256. Of all the OVC schools, only Eastern Illinois played a schedule that was in the top 200 in all of college basketball.

In other words, the OVC has to ‘schedule up’ if they want any love when the selection committee meets behind those closed doors. ‘The O’ is the 24^th ranked league of 33 at the D1 level, because they only play lower third tier teams. Their 16 conference games enhance the scheduling difficulty, but they must find a way to play higher level teams.

I’ve said, on a number of occasions, the OVC reminds me of the MVC of the late 1990’s. In-other-words, they are in a good spot, but now is the time to make some key decisions. Back in the early 2000’s MVC Commissioner Doug Elgin mandated some scheduling upgrades for Valley’s basketball teams.

It’s time for OVC Commissioner Beth DeBauche to add similar pressure to her constituents. Murray played some representative games, but were beaten easily by Valparaiso and Xavier. Had a narrow loss to Houston, become a win, things could have been a little different. Houston, however had a losing record. Outside of OVC play, the Racers’ best wins were probably against Illinois State and Western Kentucky.

That’s where Commissioner DeBauche comes in. If the majority of OVC teams play lower level teams, they cannot collectively, nor individually build a case in March. Playing and sweeping four MVC teams was a good step for Murray State, but there just weren’t enough strong opponents on the OVC schedule this year.

CBS’ Jerry Palm was a guest on our ‘Voices of the Valley’ program and, he said flatly there was “no chance” Murray State would be in the tournament. He also said the Murray State issue was the major source of his twitter involvement last weekend. (Click Here to watch that interview)

Building Blocks

Let Wichita State be your guide. The Shockers are battling Butler for the title of  ‘Gonzaga of the Midwest’ and they are doing it with great recruiting, outstanding scheduling, a rabid fan base and building a resume of success. Wichita State’s 2012 NIT win catapulted them into a ‘championship caliber.

Murray’s College Insider.com Tournament win last year, is step one. A deep run or even a championship in the NIT can be the next step for the Racers, both in image and in procuring better games in the future. This off season is important for Steve Prohm’s team.

On that note, please hold on the Steve Prohm!

So Racer fans, embrace the NIT, but for the OVC to move forward, the entire league needs a renovation of their scheduling process.

Do Good

 

Editor’s Note: Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky are participating in the College Insider.com Postseason Tournament (CIT), beginning March 17.