The Final Day – Fates Determined

MVC Wraps Up The Regular Season

(St. Louis, MO) – What a day! It’s the final day of the regular season for the Missouri Valley Conference. With each passing hour, there will be postseason fates determined.

Three MVC games tip at 1:00 pm. Three of the four Valley squads tied for fourth place at 9 and 9 play in these early contests. The biggest of these games is in Carbondale, Illinois where Southern Illinois hosts Illinois State. The loser of this game knows they have a good chance of playing next Thursday night in St. Louis.

Postseason Fates Played Out in Early Games

Northern Iowa (14-16, 9-8) @ Indiana State (14-15, 6-11) – ESPN+

If the Panthers win they can finish anywhere from fourth to sixth. Their four game winning streak was snapped by a one point defeat to Loyola on Wednesday. Twelve of their 17 league games have been decided by single digits and they are 4-8 in those games. One of the four victories was a five-point win over Indiana State.

Greg Lansing’s Sycamores are simply trying to gain some momentum for Arch Madness.

Illinois State (16-14, 9-8) @ Southern Illinois (16-14, 9-8) – CBS Sports Net

If SIU wins they could finish as high as third place. The loser could finish seventh and play on Thursday night. This is a huge contest. No Dan Muller team has ever finished with less than 18 wins and this is SIU’s third straight season of finishing with at least a .500 conference record.

Tie-breakers favor the Salukis. SIU has the best N.E.T. ranking of any of the contenders (145) and Illinois State’s is the worst (192). In almost any multiple tie scenario, including head-to-head matchups or the N.E.T., SIU comes out on top and the Redbirds fall back. ISU’s postseason fates hinge on this game.

Evansville (10-20, 4-13) @ Valparaiso (14-16, 7-10) – ESPN+

These teams are playing for pride and for momentum heading to St. Louis. Their Arch Madness assignments are set. Valparaiso’s season has been derailed by injury. It has happened again, hitting leading offensive threat Ryan Fazekas …. again. This time a broken thumb has ended his season. Despite the injuries, the Crusaders have earned one more conference victory than last season and will avoid the league’s basement.

There are better days ahead for both Evansville and Valpo, but their postseason fates are set.

The Game of the Week

Drake (22-8, 11-6) @ Missouri State (16-14, 10-7) – ESPN+

This great head-to-head matchup has many interesting story lines. A Drake win and the Bulldogs can finish no worse than tied for first (with Loyola) and will receive the second seed at Arch Madness. If Loyola would lose later in the night, the Bulldogs would stand alone atop the MVC standings.

With a Missouri State win and Loyola a loss, a three-way tie would result and the Bears would be the MVC Tournament’s top seeded team. However, if they win and Loyola prevails at home against Bradley, the Bears finish tied for second with Drake but would be the third seed by virtue of Drake’s better N.E.T. rating (136 to 157). So MSU can be first or third, but not second.

This contest sets almost every other scenario in motion and many postseason fates determined.

The Night Cap

Bradley (17-13, 9-8) @ Loyola (18-12, 11-6) – ESPN2

With a Loyola win, the Ramblers will repeat as league champions for the first time in program history. It could still happen if they lose, as long as Missouri State defeats Drake. The Valley would crown ‘tri-champions’ for the fourth time in conference history.

This is a huge game for the Braves. They’ve won nine of their last 12 games and a win would keep them out of Thursday night. A loss and they are in the ‘play-in round danger zone’. If they finish 9-9 and tied with Illinois State, the Redbirds would be the seventh seed and play on Thursday because the Braves swept ISU this season.

Since Bradley split with both UNI and SIU, if either or both of those teams joined the Braves at 9-9, the Braves would play on Thursday. Their inferior N.E.T. ranking would hurt their chances, thus Bradley really needs a win.

Today, Valley teams will have their postseason fates determined. Enjoy the games!

Do Good