Which Valley Teams have True Title Hopes?

Four Teams Could Contend

(St. Louis, MO) – It’s late October so every college basketball team is optimistic and looking forward to great things this season, but which Valley teams possess true title hopes? In other words, twelve MVC coaches are optimistic, but who will be in contention in late February?

After a second straight season of dynamic talent loss through the portal and graduation, most Missouri Valley coaches find themselves rebuilding rosters. Five new head coaches are still learning the names of their players and where to park their cars.

What are the true aspirations or expectations for this year’s Valley teams?

MVC coaches recruited well and for the second straight season, replenished the shelves with some outstanding talent. There may not be a league outside the ‘power four’ that has done a better job of tackling the portal and combatting the departure of outstanding players.

That state of flux, of ‘out with the old and in with the new‘ brings with it uncertainty and the need to adjust expectations. Fifteen of the sixteen Valley players named to last year’s first three, all-conference teams are gone. Three ran out of eligibility and twelve transferred to other programs.

Valley coaches replaced them with eleven players with some sort of all-conference recognition at their previous schools. MVC leaders landed more players from sub-Division 1 than any time in my memory and seemed to mine the junior college levels more than usual.

So which teams have true title hopes?

Is it Bradley and Everybody Else?

Several teams have realistic title hopes. It is obvious that league favorite Bradley heads this list, but which other teams believe they can contend for a championship? Most Valley teams are genuinely a ‘work in progress’, but these teams are a bit more established.

Bradley is a cut above. The Braves have three all-conference type of players in point guard Duke Deen (13.9 ppg), forward Darius Hannah (11.9)  and wing Zek Montgomery. Just below those players are senior Christian Davis and and sophomore Damarion Burch.

The combination of Almar Atlason, 7’1 Ahmet Jonovic  and transfer Corey Thomas (6’10) gives Bradley legitimate size and experience in the post. While Atlason is more a ‘stretch four’ (.410 from deep), at 6’8 he can work inside. For all of those factors we would make Brian Wardle’s team a slight favorite to win the regular season title.

But Wardle said that once grad-transfer Connor Dillon is over a back issue, he is contending for a starting spot. If the Winona State transfer is that good, Bradley is the clear MVC favorite. When the two-time, D2 all-American pushes someone to the bench or is Wardle’s sixth or seventh man, this team is destined to be outstanding.

Bradley has the truest of true title hopes.

Is this Northern Iowa’s Year?

Northern Iowa is picked second in almost every poll, but it is a quiet selection. Nobody is talking about UNI and I’m not sure why? The Panthers have a dynamic group. Ben Jacobson’s team is talented, experienced and deep. Tytan Anderson (11.9 ppg), Jacob Hutson (9.5) and Trey Campbell (9.0) are established and proven MVC players.

The rabidly rebounding Anderson (7.1 per game) is working on his long game and Campbell is a solid defender and one of the Valley’s top three-point shooters (.397). Hutson’s game continues to evolve and is a force in the UNI pick and roll game. All three could end up on an all-Valley team.

When Jacobson says he expects Loyola transfer Ben Schwieger to be one of his better players, that’s sending warning signals to the rest of the league. The former Atlantic Ten all-freshman team member is athletic, versatile and is an offensive threat from anywhere on the floor.

Virginia transfer Leon Bond III could be a true difference-maker. Jacobson quietly believes Bond could be an elite defender and an upper-level scorer. There is talent everywhere on this roster.

Sub-D1 transfers Max Weisbrod and Cael Schmitt are turning heads at Panther practices and talented youngsters are waiting in the wings. Redshirt freshman Wes Rubin and sophomore R.J. Taylor are truly ready to compete for significant minutes.

Expect freshman Redek Born and sophomore Kyle Pock to make solid contributions.

Murray State Making a Mark

This could be the year that Murray State makes its mark on the Missouri Valley Conference. Point guard JaCobi Wood (12.6 ppg) and forward Nick Ellington (11.4) are the headliners, but talented transfers Kylen Milton, Terence Harcum and A.J. Ferguson bring talent and proven productivity to Steve Prohm’s rotation.

Wood is ready to truly take the car keys of the Murray squad (4.1 assists per game) and we’re expecting him to have an MVP type of season. Ellington is coming off a solid season and reports out of Murray, Kentucky are that he is better than ever.

Milton (17.0 ppg) and Harcum (12.0) were all-conference players at their previous schools and Valley watchers have seen the explosive nature of Ferguson’s game. Milton (Arkansas Pine-Bluff) and Harcum (Appalachian State) are bigger guards who are adequate from deep and make you defend the dribble drive.

This has the potential to be an explosive Racers’ offense.

Young stallions Lawrent Rice, Jordan McCullum and Chiang Ring add explosiveness and don’t sleep on Texas Tech transfer Kyeron Lindsay. Murray may lack the true post presence that both Bradley and UNI have, but Prohm has five players 6’7 or taller that will patrol the frontcourt and they have talent.

Joining Ellington up front are junior returner Alden Applewhite, McCullum, Ring and Lindsay.

During Prohm’s twelve, head coaching seasons, he has won four regular season titles and four conference tournament championships. This 100^th season of Racers’ basketball could be special.

A Sleeper With True Title Hopes

Our sleeper is Southern Illinois. We may be drinking the Scott Nagy Cool-Aid, but he has three, D1, double-digit scoring transfers in this year’s recruiting class. Ali Dibba (15.5 ppg at Abilene Christian), Davion Sykes (11.2 at Texas State) and Elijah Elliott (16.6 at Rio Grande Valley) bring proven scoring to Nagy’s fast-paced offense. Missouri State transfers Damien Mayo and Tyler Bey have great promise, and it just seems that sophomore Kennard Davis is ready to break out.

For SIU to be a championship caliber team, post players Jarrett Hensley, junior college transfer Jorge Moreno and freshman Jaheem Webber will have to defend well and score occasionally.

Scott Nagy’s teams have won at least 18 games every season since 2010. He knows how to win games and conference championships. His teams have won six league titles during his sixteen D1 coaching seasons and four more during his nine seasons in Division 2.

True Title Hopes – Coaching Records Matter

These four head coaches (and Belmont’s Casey Alexander) have proven track records. Now, more than ever, I trust coaches that have predictive results. While we could probably add Drake’s Ben McCollum to this list due to his incredible D2 accomplishments, we are giving him a year at the D1 level to get his feet wet.

Jacobson (354 wins) has won .603 of his games and Nagy (334) has collected .637. Prohm (230) is just a notch below at .591. Wardle’s (253) .555 winning percentage is deceiving. His first two Bradley teams were 18-47. If we eliminate those two rebuilding years, his percentage jumps to .604. By-the-way, Alexander (255) has won .610 of his head coaching games.

This doesn’t mean the other Valley coaches aren’t as good or can’t be as successful. We’re merely pointing out that these coaches have demonstrated their ability to win games, championships and build programs.

With coaches of this caliber, these teams will usually have true title hopes.

Do Good

 

Editor: Cover photo courtesy of mvc-sports.com.